Betting Tips for NFL Week 10
Seattle SEAHAWKS (+2.5) vs. Tampa Bay BUCCANEERS
As I outlined in my pre-season betting guide, it’s important to stick with what you know. If you spot an angle, keep banging the drum until it breaks.
In this matchup, we’re able to exploit two of the most profitable angles so far this NFL season; backing the Seattle Seahawks as an underdog, while fading the miserable Tampa Bay Buccaneers as a favorite.
The Seahawks continue to shred pre-season expectations. At 6-3, they currently sit atop the NFC West. They also boast an impressive 6-3 record against the spread, covering by more than 10 points in four straight games. The Seahawks offense ranks fourth overall this season, with Geno Smith completing a league-leading 72.9% of his passes.
NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds: Geno Smith among the favorites for CPOY
Meanwhile, Tom Brady and the Buccaneers continue to struggle. We saw the faintest glimmer of hope as Touchdown Tom led the Bucs to a last-minute win in Week 9 over the Los Angeles Rams. However, that last-second win snapped a three-game losing streak. The Bucs improved to 4-5, which, miraculously, is good enough for the division lead in the terrible NFC South. But anyone who’s watched a Bucs game this season knows the truth…
This. Team. Suuuuuuuucks.
The Bucs are 2-6-1 against the spread, with ugly outright losses to the Panthers and Steelers. The only two games which saw the Bucs cover the point spread were the first two games of the season against the Cowboys and Saints. Looking back, those wins aren’t nearly as impressive. Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott was nursing a gruesome thumb injury in the season opener. In Week 2, Saints quarterback Jameis Winston was playing through serious back pain before being placed on the Saints injury report.
Since those back-to-back games, the Bucs have failed to cover the point spread in seven straight games, going 0-6-1 in that span. And yet! Because Tom Brady won seven Super Bowls while Geno Smith was getting punched by his teammates, the betting market has decided to favor these terrible Bucs. Again. And disrespect these Seahawks. AGAIN.
I’m not going to stand for that. Give me the Seahawks plus the points in Munich.
Bet NFL Week 10: Get up to a $1,250 in bonuses at DraftKings
NFL Week 10: Underdog Value
Minnesota VIKINGS (+6) vs. Buffalo BILLS
In the span of three hours on Sunday, the Buffalo Bills suffered the two biggest losses of their season. Not only did they blow an 11-point lead to the New York Jets, they may have lost NFL MVP front-runner Josh Allen for an extended stretch with an elbow injury.
And while there’s plenty of football left this season, losing Allen this week is pretty terrible timing. The Bills host the 7-1 Minnesota Vikings on Sunday afternoon.
The Vikings are getting six points on the road, which seems huge if Allen misses this game. Yet, as big of an angle this appears to be, I’m keeping the bet to my standard unit size. Sure, the Bills are significantly worse with backup quarterback Case Keenum under center, but there are two big reasons I’m keeping this to a standard bet.
For starters, Allen has not been officially ruled out. If Allen plays, this line will move back towards +8 where it opened and we’ll be sitting with a bad ticket. If he’s ruled out completely? There’s a small chance this line flips, and we see the Vikings a slight favorite, which makes our +6 ticket an absolute banger.
Secondly, I haven’t been terribly impressed with this Vikings team. Despite the second-best record in the NFL, the Vikings offense has been out-gained this season. The Vikings are averaging 340 yards per game compared with 370 yards allowed. Their last six wins have been one-score games, and six of the Vikings’ seven total wins have come against sub .500 teams. Their lone win against a team with a winning record was the Miami Dolphins. Tua Tagovailoa missed this game with a concussion, so the Vikings coasted against the backup duo of Teddy Bridgewater and Skyler Thompson.
Having said all of that, value is value. Kirk Cousins and company should have no trouble hanging around with Keenum and the Bills. I’m comfortable putting a unit on the Vikings +6 with the intention of playing for a middle if this line swings in the other direction. I’ll be looking to add some exposure on Bills -2.5 or better if Allen is ruled out.
If Allen plays? Well… $#!t.